On October 19, Albertans will be asked to vote on a number of questions that have potentially consequential implications for our province and our country.  There has been much rhetoric around each of the questions, and it is almost certain there will be even more rhetoric before ballots are cast.

The Muttart Foundation is not supporting or opposing any of the questions.

It does, however, feel it vitally important that people have access to evidence about each of the issues on which they are being asked to make judgment.  What follows is our attempt to provide facts and perhaps say things that others will not, or cannot, say.

The provincial referendum on October 19 th , 2026 will include ten questions, with a two-part question relating to Alberta’s position in federation.

  • Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?
  • Option 1: Alberta should remain a province in Canada.
  • Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

The results of the referendum question are not binding, although how Albertans vote will guide the future actions of the provincial government.

The impacts of separation or the decision to pursue a binding referendum of separation on Alberta’s charitable sector are difficult to predict. The Quebec referendum in 1995 provides some evidence of how a vote on separation impacts on a province, its economy and its politics,1 with uncertainty a common theme.

Should Alberta subsequently decide to separate then there would be further potential economic, organizational and legal or regulatory changes and disruptions that charities would be required to manage. There are currently no precedents for how these changes would impact charities and their work.

Looking at how separation might impact on the work of the charitable sector, the following main areas of potential concern arise.

The Potential Impacts of Separation on Charities’ Finances and Economic Well-Being

Most economists anticipate that separation will result in some level of economic uncertainty or instability. The close relationships between the financial health of the charitable sector and the general state of the economy mean that charities would likely face financial stresses, for some period of time, should the province separate from Canada.

Business leaders have already highlighted the initial impacts of economic uncertainty in advance of the referendum on investment in the province, which has increased the costs of some projects.2

In a poll of Calgary Chamber of Commerce members, 48 percent responded that they are very or somewhat likely to leave the province and relocate their business if Alberta votes to begin the separation process. Economic modelling prepared for the Chamber suggests separation from Canada would result in a reduction in GDP of around $62 billion per year (six percent).3

Generally, during times of economic disruption or instability, the demand for charities’ services increases, as more households face challenges in meeting their basic needs. These increases occur at the same time as charities commonly see their revenues decrease4 as a result of reductions in public and corporate funding and lower levels of charitable giving.

Following the 2008 recession, 28 percent of Alberta nonprofits reported that corporate funding decreased by at least 10 percent. In 2016, 17 percent of Alberta nonprofits reported that corporate funding had fallen 10 percent or more following the decline in oil prices5. Nationally, following the 2008 recession, the value of claimed tax receipt donations dropped, followed by five years of stagnant giving levels.6

Should Alberta separate from Canada, new sources of public funding would need to be found to replace the current federal transfers to community nonprofits. In 2024, these federal transfers amounted to approximately $900 million.7

Separation may further result in some Alberta-based philanthropic foundations relocating their corporate offices to other provinces, and some high-net-worth philanthropists similarly relocating to other parts of Canada.

An independent Alberta would likely experience some period of economic instability as it negotiated its separation from Canada and potentially higher public costs as it transitioned to new models of public revenues and expenditures.

These economic disruptions would likely result in charities facing some loss of public funding and other revenues at a time when the demand for their services increase.

The Potential Impacts of Separation on Labour Markets and Charities’ Workforces

The impacts of separation on labour markets remain uncertain. It appears likely that the forecast increased economic uncertainty or instability from separation would also translate into some level of uncertainty in labour markets.

Initial research finds that just under one in three Albertans report that they would consider relocating to other regions of Canada should the province separate.8 And that 400,000 Albertans, or eight percent of the population, may leave the province were it to separate.9 Recent modelling suggests the workforce may shrink by 175,000.10

Significant disruptions to the labour market would impact all sectors of the economy, but may present particular challenges for the charitable sector, given its current difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff. A 2023 Calgary Chamber of Voluntary Organizations report noted that 56 percent of Alberta charities and nonprofits that had hired in the past year found it difficult or very difficult to find or attract new staff.11

Preliminary polling finds that both youth and student populations are amongst the demographic groups most opposed to separation. These younger age cohorts appear to place value on their ability to study, train and work across Canada. Should these younger populations choose to leave Alberta if it separates, the charitable sector would lose part of its future workforce and leadership.12

The Potential Impacts of Separation on Charities’ National Networks and Affiliations

Canadian charities have a long history of advancing goals through national initiatives and umbrella organizations. These organizations operate standards programs, conduct research, provide education, and represent the sector’s work to government, corporate Canada, and to Canadians. Many charities rely on other organizations to perform advocacy on their behalf. Oftentimes, these are national bodies.13

Many of the larger and well-established nonprofits and charities in Alberta operate nationally. These organizations commonly play central roles in the well-being of Alberta communities and enjoy high public profiles that attract both corporate and individual donor support. Health charities, disability organizations, disaster relief, veterans’ services, research institutes, and philanthropic foundations make up a proportion of those organizations with national reach and scope.

The Government of Alberta’s non-profit listing includes over 2,100 organizations registered extra provincially, a direct measure of how many “Alberta” nonprofits and charities are national or multi jurisdictional in scope.14

Should Alberta separate from Canada these national organizations would likely be subject to new requirements in respect to their incorporation and operation. They may also face new regulatory and reporting requirements. National organizations with regional members may have to revise their affiliation agreements to accommodate working with member organizations that operate in a new country or jurisdiction.

At present, it is uncertain how these organizations would respond to these potential new requirements. Some may decide to cease their operations in Alberta.

The loss of national charities and those with national membership structures would potentially reduce the advocacy, research and service capacity of the Alberta charitable sector.

The Potential Impacts of Separation on the Regulation of Charities

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is the de facto regulator of Canadian charities. Charitable status, receipting, disbursement rules, and reporting all flow through the CRA’s Charities Directorate.

Alberta’s separation from Canada would require the design and implementation of a new regulatory regime for those charities that choose to stay registered. Charities would likely need to amend or revise their current reporting protocols to meet new legal requirements and obligations.

The current combined federal-provincial tax credits for charitable donations are amongst the most generous of those jurisdictions that receipt gifts. Further, Alberta charities have access to other tax rebates and credits. Should Alberta separate, these tax benefits would need to be redesigned and refunded to enable Alberta charities to receive the same level of benefit.

New cross-border agreements would also need to be developed to enable donors in other provinces to provide tax-receipted donations to charities in Alberta and to enable Albertans to make tax-receiptable donations to charities outside of Alberta. National fundraising organizations or campaigns would also likely have to introduce new approaches and regulations, both to accommodate Alberta donors making gifts to charities in other regions of Canada and Alberta-based charities looking to receive gifts through national campaigns.

Until these new regulations and provisions are in place, there is the potential for Alberta charities to lose revenue and or face delays or additional costs in meeting the requirements to access these revenues.

Canada’s charitable sector has invested significant time and resources in building and maintaining strong relationships with the Charities Directorate and the Department of Finance. These relationships help safeguard the integrity of tax benefits charities enjoy and helps to mitigate the risk of tax fraud or non compliance. Should Alberta separate, Alberta charities’ relationship with the federal regulator would end, and a new relationship would need to be developed with a new regulator.

Again, this is another potential disruption to the work of Alberta charities.


1 Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2014. Some economic dimensions of the sovereignty debate in
Quebec: debt, GDP, and migration | Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/30/2/237/526087
2 City News Calgary. 2026. Separation referendum would be ‘bad for the country’: Calgary Chamber of
Commerce. https://calgary.citynews.ca/2025/05/16/alberta-separation-calgary-chamber/
3 Calgary Chamber of Commerce. 2026. Nearly half of Calgary Chamber members are likely to relocate
business if Alberta separation process moves forward.
4 Calgary Chamber of Voluntary Organizations. 2015. Alberta Nonprofit Survey, 2015 Edition.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/668c126229fe29322111177e/t/66e35a14236a7b7ece259fee
/1735838537768/2015AlbertaNonprofitSurvey_web.pdf
5 Calgary Chamber of Voluntary Organizations. 2016. Alberta Nonprofit Survey 2016.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/668c126229fe29322111177e/t/66e3581dbe22be07bae6a7f8/
1735838537768/ABSurvey_2016.pdf
6 Rideau Hall Foundation and Imagine Canada. 2018. Thirty Years of Giving in Canada: The Giving
Behaviour of Canadians: Who gives, how and why? https://rhf-frh.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2018/04/RHF_30years_Report_eng_FNL.pdf
7 Government of Canada. 2026. Production, income and outlay accounts of non-profit institutions.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610061301&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.10&pickM
embers%5B1%5D=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2020&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2024&referencePeri
ods=20200101%2C20240101
8 Leger. 2026. Canadians Weigh the Potential Impact of Alberta and Quebec Independence.
https://leger360.com/in-the-news-alberta-quebec-independance/
9 The Macdonald-Laurier Institute. 2025. A separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta.
https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/a-separate-alberta-would-be-a-poorer-alberta-trevor-tombe-in-the-hub/
10 Calgary Chamber of Commerce. 2026. Nearly half of Calgary Chamber members are likely to relocate
business if Alberta separation process moves forward.
11 The Nonprofit Chamber. 2023. Facing the Storm: State of the Sector 2023.
https://www.thenonprofitchamber.org/facing-the-storm
12 According to Janet Brown’s polling for CBC, opposition to separation is highest among 18–24-year-olds
(reported at 81% opposed), and highest by employment status among students (reported at 87%
opposed). These are precisely the people who will staff and lead the sector in the future. CBC News.
CBC Calgary 2026 Road Ahead Poll – Separation. https://www.planetjanet.ca/_files/ugd/586d9d_5d66bc7eeaa347da955f18479423ec7d.pdf
13 Charity Insights Canada Project. 2025. Policy in Canada’s Charitable Sector: Collective CICP Survey
Results (2023-2025). https://carleton.ca/cicp-pcpob/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2025/11/Policy-2023-
2025-1.pdf
14 Government of Alberta. 2026. Alberta Non-Profit Listing. https://open.alberta.ca/opendata/alberta-non-profit-listing.